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Smoking health harms “worse than we thought”, new ANU study of Australians aged 45 and over finds

Posted 26 Feb, 2025

The scale of harm caused by smoking is higher than previously thought, according to new research[1] out today from The Australian National University (ANU). Tragically, an estimated 66 Australians a day, or more than 24,000 people a year, will die from smoking.

It is well-known that smoking increases mortality, however to date, estimates of the number of Australian deaths caused by smoking have been based on international studies, as local data have not been available. In this study[2] 178,000 Australians, aged 45-74 were interviewed between 2005 and 2009 and followed until 2017. Providing detailed local evidence for the first time, this new research shows the harm is worse than indicated by the previous estimates of smoking-caused death of around 15,000 to 21,000 deaths a year.

It finds that smoking increases the risk of dying from 23 common causes – including health harms related to the lungs, the heart and even the brain. The results also show that even low-level smoking can kill. Smoking 14 or fewer cigarettes a day increases the risk of dying from chronic lung disease by 20-fold and raises risk of lung cancer death 10-fold.

Image source: The Australian National University. 

CEO of Cancer Council Victoria, Todd Harper AM, expressed his deep concern at what the results reveal.

“It’s alarming to think that the more research we have into the impacts of smoking, the more we discover about just how dire the health harms are. Every cigarette is doing you damage, and we’re committed to doing all we can to prevent these harms, with a particular focus at Cancer Council Victoria on the 16 cancers smoking causes,” Mr Harper said.

Rachael Andersen, Quit Director said this new research underscores the importance of the current tobacco and vaping reforms in steering Australia towards a future where young people are protected from uniquely addictive and harmful products.

“Our decades-long work calling for strengthened tobacco laws has been effective in driving down smoking prevalence and preventing uptake among younger people, and this is why we must do more to reduce harms from smoking.”

Ms Andersen also encouraged people who currently smoke to reach out to the services available to help people quit.

“I can only imagine how results like these will worry someone who smokes. Whether it’s your very first attempt to quit, or it’s been years since you tried, we’re here to help. Quitting becomes more do-able if you get the right kind of help and take it one step at a time. Quit.org.au can help all Australians access the right kinds of support to quit. And our Quitline counsellors are empathetic, non-judgemental and will work with you to find a way to support you to stop smoking,” she said.

While Australia is widely regarded as a world-leader in tobacco control, Mr Harper pointed out that now was not the time to become complacent about our success.

“Every day more than five dozen Australian families lose a loved one. We can prevent this kind of tragedy if we help people quit for good. And we can put an end to the tragedy of 24,000 Australians dying every year if we stop the tobacco industry from addicting new generations to nicotine. Anytime someone who smokes engages with the health system, it’s an opportunity to support them to quit. Today’s research shows that the more we can stop smoking uptake and support people to quit, the less they will end up needing the support of the Australian health system,” Mr Harper concluded.

-ENDS- 


MEDIA CONTACT: 

Prue Gildea, Quit Media Manager 

0400 394 274 / prue.gildea@cancervic.org.au  

For support to stop smoking or vaping, connect with Quit. Message us on WhatsApp or Facebook Messenger @QuitVic, live chat through quit.org.au or request a call back at a time that suits you. From Mon – Fri 8am to 8pm qualified Quitline counsellors are ready to support you on your quitting journey.

References

1 BMC Medicine: Relationship of tobacco smoking to cause-specific mortality: contemporary estimates from Australia https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-025-03883-9 

2 The Sax Institute’s 45 and Up Study: www.saxinstitute.org.au/solutions/45-and-up-study/   

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